Football betting using a weight of money system
Problems with the weight of money football system
There are several problems with blindly using a weight of money football betting systemAs the pre-match movements in the prices offered don't change by massive amounts compared to betting on horse racing for example, the returns are slim. This means that you need to bet a large stake to make a small return of something like 1-2%. If you spread your return across all three outcomes of the match (win, lose, draw) the return will be even smaller than this.
You might aim to back an outcome at 1.95 and lay it at 1.92 or even just go for a 1 point profit at a time. Although you do sometimes see pre-match football odds shift more dramatically, they generally move in quite a narrow range and big betting profits or losses in percentage terms are rare using this betting strategy.
Clearly you also need to be betting with a large stake to make large returns this way.
Unexpected changes in the market
As this is a pre-match trading system you need to concentrate hard to ensure that the market doesn't shift and take a different direction to the one you anticipate. This can happen for many different reasons, but the main ones are that backers cannot find the prices they require and go away, or new money becomes offered to match their required odds before you manage to get your bets matched.
Fluff orders
Betting markets can get manipulated by fluff orders placed by unscrupulous traders.Here a trader might wish to get his Lay bet matched. To do this he places a large amount of money on the Back side of the market, but several points off where the market is currently trading. He has no intention of this bet ever being matched. It is there solely to con other traders into backing the market in the expectation that this wave of money will soon be forcing the market down.
This happens and the evil market manipulator gets his lay bet away. Then - Surprise! Surprise! - the money disappears leaving the rest of the market feeling stupid saying "What happened there?".
How do you tell the difference between Fluff Orders and genuine money?
It's pretty hard, but one way is to be very suspicious of one very large unmatched bet amount surrounded by much smaller amounts at adjacent prices. A real wave of new money into the market is usually spread across several prices.
Football betting for small, low risk returns
To make money betting using a weight of money football betting system you need to make a small amount again and again. But many football matches kick off at the same time. And it's hard to concentrate on more than one match at a time. So this limits the amount of money trading this system can make.
Avoid going in play
As with any pre-match trading, it's essential not to let your bet drift in-play. If the market moves in the opposite direction to the one you were expected, just accept that you were wrong, take your small loss, learn from it and stick to the system.
Football betting discipline
As with any football betting system, discipline is fundamentally important to making long term money from the Weight of Money approach to football betting. One in-play loss can wipe out the returns from dozens of successful bets - which is both frustrating and expensive.